Modeling the Future Challenge

Competition Status

For:High School

Types: Submission, Presentation

Categories: Business, economics, STEM

Scope:National

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The Modeling the Future Challenge (MFC) is a new academic competition being developed by The Institute of Competition Sciences for the Actuarial Foundation (TAF).  The premise is simple.  Students are challenged to develop and present their own mathematical models describing how they envision a new technology or industry will change the future. Successful submissions to the MFC will provide findings supported by mathematical computations.  Through this challenge, students will apply mathematics to better understand cutting-edge industries and technologies. They will also learn about how to access highly sought after career opportunities as actuaries and other math related fields. The 2017-2018 challenge topic is on Autonomous Vehicles, one of the fastest moving, exciting, and game-changing technologies of our time. The information in the pages below will provide you with the nuts and bolts of the Modeling the Future Challenge.

Research the technology topic for the year. Develop mathematical models projecting how adoption of the technology may change the future. Then compile the information about your models into a written report describing the change you expect in three areas: (1) the technology industry being discussed (autonomous vehicles  for the 2017-2018 challenge), (2) the insurance industry, and (3) another aspect of society at large. Reports will be submitted online with a group of selected finalists invited to the  "Modeling the Future Symposium" in New York City to present to a panel of actuaries for the  final scholarship awards.

Executive Summary (5 points)

How well does the submission summarize the information? Is it concise but clear? Does it provide key points on each of the three content sections, and include information about the mathematical models and conclusions/recommendations?

Data Methodology (5 points)

How well is the data used described? Does it demonstrate sound critical thinking about the data and have strong reasoning behind why and how the data was used?

Mathematics Methodology (5 points)

How well do the models use sound mathematical principles? Does it incorporate advanced mathematical techniques beyond just arithmetic and basic statistics like mean, median, and mode? To receive full points, the submission will demonstrate that advanced statistical and modeling techniques were used to develop the analyses. It should have a strong description of the mathematical techniques used in all models, and have strong justification for the use of each mathematical technique.

Transportation Analysis (5 points)

How well developed and thought-out is the model of change for the transportation industry? To receive full points, the submission must identify and characterize one or more specific changes in the transportation industry that are based upon direct inferences from the mathematical models. The submission should state how the expected industry statistics were calculated, both with and without adoption of autonomous vehicles.

Insurance Analysis

5 points available How well are existing auto-insurance policies understood and how well does the submission model the changes that may be required to those policies with the expected adoption of autonomous vehicles over the next 10 years? To receive full points, the submission should identify and characterize specific changes to insurance policies based on direct inference from their mathematical models. The submission should also demonstrate a strong understanding of the economics of automobile insurance and demonstrate how the use of autonomous vehicles will impact the financials of these policies.

Society at Large Analysis

5 points available How well does the submission identify and characterize another sector of society that will be impacted by the adoption of autonomous vehicles over the next 5 to 20 years? To receive full points, the submission should identify one or more sectors of society that will be affected by autonomous vehicles. The submission must accurately characterize effects based on mathematical analysis. The submission should demonstrate how that change is expected to propagate over 10+ years.

Conclusions

10 points available How well does the submission identify recommendations in each of the three sectors (Transportation, Insurance, and Society at Large) to mitigate some of the potential negative impacts or risk factors associated with the adoption of autonomous vehicles over the next 10+ years? To receive full points, the submission should identify recommendations in each of the three sectors that are based on sound mathematical findings. The recommendations should be characterized and quantified, and should demonstrate how the expected adoption of autonomous vehicles will improve each sector.
1st Place

Team Award. $25000.

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2nd Place

Team Award. $15000.

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3rd Place

Team Award. $10000.

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4th Place

Team Award. $5000.

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Website: www.mtfchallenge.org

Managing Organization: The Actuarial Foundation

Contact:
Andrew Moralez
challenge@mtfchallenge.org

Entry Fee: $0

Eligibility:
This competition is open to any 11th or 12th grade high school student in the United States. Students can participate individually or on teams of up to 3 students.

This competition is open to students in High School.

May 8, 2017 1st Informational webinar for educators and coaches (optional)

June 27, 2017 Educator Math Grant applications due (optional)

July 8, 2017 Introductory datasets released & official team registration opens

July 11, 2017 2nd informational webinar for educators (optional)

September 19, 2017 3rd informational webinar for educators (optional)

October 17, 2017 4th informational webinar for educators (optional)

October 28, 2017 Student or team registration due

November 25, 2017 Submissions due

December 20, 2017 Finalists announced

February 26, 2018 Modeling The Future Symposium, presentations, and final awards announced